Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Market context

Shanghai’s high for the day will be set by the warmest reading logged at Pudong Airport before the settlement cut-off, so the key question is whether conditions reach the upper end of June norms or stay in the low 30s Celsius. June at Shanghai Pudong typically sees daily highs rising from about 77°F to 83°F, with temperatures rarely falling below 69°F or exceeding 92°F, which makes a very hot outcome possible but not the base case.[1][5]

A 0% crowd-implied probability on the top outcome implies the market is pricing in an extreme reading as essentially excluded, which is unusual for late-June Shanghai but not impossible if a warm, humid air mass and strong sunshine combine before convection arrives. Comparable airport-based temperature markets often move on the timing of afternoon storms rather than the daily mean, because the contract resolves to the *highest* temperature recorded, not the day’s average, and short-lived spikes can matter more than the broader forecast.[2][7] On accessibility, German GlüStV rules may affect whether some users can access or promote the market, while US CFTC reach matters if trading touches US persons or US-facing activity; “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means small balances can be used with lighter identity checks, which broadens access but does not remove jurisdictional limits.

For traders, the main catalysts are the Shanghai daylight heating cycle, the timing of any afternoon thunderstorms, and whether the airport station records its peak before cloud cover or rain caps temperatures. Forecasts around today show a risk of afternoon thunderstorms in Shanghai, with AccuWeather indicating rain and t-storm chances and highs around the upper 20s Celsius, so a shift in storm timing is the most direct driver of the ceiling temperature.[7][8] The practical dependency is the Wunderground station reading itself, so any model changes, airport-specific observations, or updates to the day’s high on the station history page are the data points that will matter most.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.