Colombia Presidential Election

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold a presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a constitutionally mandated second round scheduled for 21 June 2026 if no candidate achieves an outright majority in the first ballot. The current administration, led by Gustavo Petro (elected 2022), is constitutionally barred from immediate re-election. The election will determine Colombia's executive leadership across a five-year term amid ongoing debates surrounding economic policy, security, and social reform.

Historical precedent suggests Colombian runoff elections frequently occur; since 1991, second rounds have been required in most presidential contests, making the June settlement window material to final resolution. The 2022 election saw Petro win a runoff against Rodolfo Hernández with 50.4% of votes, demonstrating how narrow margins can emerge even after first-round plurality results. Current polling and candidate declarations remain fluid, with multiple potential contenders from centre-left, centre-right, and right-wing coalitions positioning themselves. The 0% implied probability reflects either early-stage market formation or absence of listed candidates meeting specific resolution criteria at present.

Traders should monitor candidate registration deadlines (typically 60 days before the election), campaign finance disclosures, and polling releases from firms including Invamer and CNC. The Colombian electoral authority (Registraduría Nacional) will publish official results; international observers from the OAS and Carter Center typically issue preliminary statements within 48 hours of voting. Under German GlüStV and CFTC reach considerations, this market remains accessible to UK-based traders; no-KYC entry thresholds up to £1,200 apply where applicable, though regulatory status varies by jurisdiction and operator.

Methodology

This page reviews Colombia Presidential Election across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.