Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily highs across all hours for that location. Seoul's early summer climate typically produces highs between 25–28°C in early June, though variability exists year-on-year depending on monsoon onset timing and synoptic patterns.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than meteorological certainty. Historical June 1st data from Incheon shows a thirty-year average high of approximately 26°C, with recorded extremes ranging from 20°C to 32°C. The absence of trading activity suggests limited initial participation; comparable weather markets on prediction platforms typically see meaningful price discovery only as the settlement date approaches within two to four weeks. Traders should note that early-June Seoul weather depends heavily on whether the East Asian monsoon (Jangma) has commenced, a transition that shifts mean temperatures and variance considerably.

The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks and daily forecasts; their May 2026 advisory will clarify whether anomalous warmth or cooler-than-normal conditions are anticipated. Traders should monitor late-May weather pattern updates from regional forecasters, as upper-atmosphere blocking or tropical moisture intrusion can shift June 1st highs by 4–6°C. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 1 June, giving traders access to actual recorded data within hours of market closure.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.