Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold its first-round presidential election on 31 May 2026. The election requires a candidate to secure over 50% of valid votes to win outright; if no candidate reaches that threshold, a runoff between the top two finishers occurs on 21 June. This market resolves to whichever candidate receives the most votes in the first round, regardless of whether an absolute majority is achieved. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about the field rather than certainty of a runoff outcome.

Colombian presidential elections have historically produced first-round winners only when a dominant candidate emerges with broad coalition support. In 2022, Gustavo Petro won the first round with 40.3% before securing a runoff victory; in 2018, Iván Duque took the first round with 39.3%. The pattern suggests runoffs are the norm when the electorate fragments across ideological lines. Current polling data from late 2025 remains sparse, making early probability assessment difficult. The 0% reading likely reflects traders' assessment that no single candidate commands sufficient first-round dominance, though this will shift materially once credible polling emerges closer to the election date.

Key catalysts include candidate registration deadlines (typically January–February 2026), formal campaign launches, and monthly polling releases from firms including Invamer and CNC. The Colombian electoral authority (CNE) will announce detailed voting procedures by April 2026. International observers from the OAS and Carter Center typically issue assessments in the weeks before polling day. Settlement depends on CNE's official results announcement, which historically occurs within days of voting. Traders should monitor coalition announcements and withdrawal of candidates, as these directly affect first-round concentration of votes.

Methodology

We track Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.