Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport’s **highest temperature on 21 June 2026** is the settlement variable, and the market resolves on the Weather Underground daily history reading for KLGA rather than citywide observations or a broader New York forecast. The current **0% YES** crowd price therefore reflects an extreme view on the stated outcome buckets, not a forecast of the actual weather itself.

Recent comparable NYC temperature markets suggest traders have been willing to price very sharp outcomes when the forecast is clear: the June 8 market at Polymarket moved to **74–75°F at 100%**, while the June 19 market concentrated at **82–83°F at 100%**.[1][2] The National Weather Service’s climatology for LaGuardia puts the **normal maximum at 83°F** for 21 June, with a **record maximum of 98°F**, which frames the day as one where anything from a near-average upper 70s/low 80s result to a much hotter outlier is meteorologically plausible.[5] On that basis, a zero-price reading should be read as a market structure signal rather than a clean statement that the day cannot land in any listed range.

For accessibility and compliance context, the main practical issue is whether the venue is usable from the trader’s jurisdiction. Under Germany’s GlüStV framework, online gambling-style offerings can trigger licensing and advertising restrictions, so German users may face access limits depending on how the product is classified locally. In the US, the CFTC’s reach matters because some event contracts can attract derivatives scrutiny even when the underlying event is non-financial, which is why venue terms and geography controls matter for prediction markets tied to weather. A “**no-KYC up to $1,500**” structure usually means smaller accounts can trade with lighter identity checks until cumulative activity or withdrawals cross that threshold, improving entry friction but not removing jurisdictional screening or withdrawal verification requirements.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.