Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 22 June 2026 will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” in its Daily Extract, so the live question is whether the day’s peak reading lands in the relevant temperature band once the record is published. The Observatory’s summer outlook for June–August 2026 calls for *above-normal temperature* in Hong Kong, which supports a warmer baseline rather than an unusually cool outcome.[1]

The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES should be read cautiously because this is a one-day weather print, not a seasonal average. Comparable HKO messaging and recent coverage have pointed to strong heat in Hong Kong this year, including reports that 2026 may be one of the city’s hottest years and that temperatures have already exceeded 34°C on the hottest day so far, but those signals do not determine the specific 22 June maximum.[6][8] For this market, the key historical frame is that Hong Kong June highs often sit in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with forecast services showing daily highs around 88°F to 92°F, roughly 31°C to 33°C.[2]

From a regulatory and access standpoint, Hong Kong weather markets are usually straightforward factually but not frictionless operationally. German GlüStV rules can affect whether a user can access or legally participate from Germany, because the treaty framework is restrictive around online gambling-style products, while US CFTC reach matters if the product is treated as a derivatives-style event contract and touches US persons or US-facing intermediaries. A “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold generally means small balances can be opened with lighter identity checks, which lowers onboarding friction for this market, but it does not remove jurisdictional or platform-specific limits, and settlement still depends entirely on the HKO’s published extract.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.