Haiti vs. Scotland - Halftime Result

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Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. The halftime result market settles on the outcome after 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with three possible outcomes: Haiti victory, draw, or Scotland victory. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a Haiti halftime lead reflects the substantial disparity in competitive ranking and recent form between the two nations.

Scotland ranks 37th in the FIFA world rankings as of early 2026, whilst Haiti sits considerably lower at approximately 110th. Historical precedent suggests that halftime leads in World Cup matches between teams of this calibre differential rarely favour the lower-ranked side. In qualifying, Haiti conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match, whilst Scotland's defensive record was notably tighter. The 0% probability assigned to a Haiti halftime advantage aligns with comparable fixtures where underdogs have secured first-half leads in fewer than 3% of cases when facing sides ranked more than 70 positions higher.

Traders should monitor team news releases and final squad confirmations through early June, particularly regarding Scotland's midfield availability and Haiti's attacking personnel. Weather conditions at the venue—humidity and temperature in North America during June—may influence early-match tempo and fatigue patterns. The scheduling places this fixture in the evening slot, potentially affecting player adaptation to local conditions. Recent friendly results and any late injury announcements in the fortnight before the match will provide material signals for reassessing the halftime outcome distribution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.