Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in a FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifying match on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. The fixture falls within the CONCACAF (North America, Central America, Caribbean) qualifying round for Haiti and the UEFA qualifying round for Scotland. Haiti's historical record against European opposition is poor; they have never qualified for a World Cup finals tournament. Scotland, conversely, qualified for Euro 2024 and has competitive infrastructure, though they failed to reach the 2022 World Cup. The 4% implied probability reflects Scotland's substantial advantage in squad depth, recent tournament experience, and playing standard, though qualifying matches occasionally produce upsets when travel fatigue or fixture congestion affects stronger sides.

Traders should monitor team news releases from both federations in the week preceding 13 June, particularly injury updates for Scotland's key players and Haiti's squad availability. Fixture scheduling across both confederations can create congestion; Scotland's preceding matches in the qualifying cycle will influence squad rotation decisions. Recent qualifying results from both nations—available via FIFA's official fixture database—provide context for form trends, though single matches carry high variance.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction. Under the German GlüStV framework, prediction markets on sports outcomes require specific licensing; UK-based traders face no equivalent blanket restriction. US CFTC reach extends to binary sports contracts offered to US persons, though many platforms operate under interpretive exemptions. No-KYC access up to $1,500 on certain platforms means traders can participate without identity verification below that threshold, reducing friction for casual engagement on this specific match outcome, though settlement and withdrawal may require later verification depending on platform policy.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.