# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a certain number of views within its first 24 hours of publication. The market settles on that raw view count, with brackets ranging across typical performance tiers for the channel. If no video appears by 30 June 2026, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. The 58% crowd probability suggests traders expect a strong first-day performance, consistent with the creator's historical upload patterns and audience engagement.

MrBeast's recent videos have consistently exceeded 50 million views in the opening day, with several surpassing 100 million. His December 2024 uploads averaged 80–120 million first-day views, establishing a baseline against which the current probability can be calibrated. Comparable high-profile creators on the platform—including SET India and Zee Entertainment channels—show similar velocity when releasing major content, though MrBeast's subscriber base (210+ million) and algorithmic favours position him at the upper end of the distribution. The 58% probability reflects confidence in exceeding a mid-range threshold, likely around 80–100 million views.

Traders should monitor MrBeast's upload schedule and any announced collaborations or special formats, as these directly influence first-day performance. Recent patterns show uploads occurring on Thursdays and Fridays, maximising weekend engagement. Regulatory accessibility for this market varies by jurisdiction: under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets require licensing; in the US, the CFTC's reach extends to event derivatives, though no-KYC access up to $1,500 USD notional exposure remains available on certain platforms, permitting retail participation without full identity verification for smaller positions. Settlement depends on YouTube's public view counter at the 24-hour mark post-publication.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.