Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Wellington's winter climate typically produces daily highs between 10–14 °C during early June, though occasional warm fronts can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station, with the resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than meteorological certainty. Historical June data from Wellington shows considerable variability: the airport has recorded June highs ranging from 7 °C to 18 °C across different years, with mean temperatures around 11 °C. Comparable winter-season weather markets typically see modest trading activity until five to ten days before settlement, when forecast models stabilise and traders gain confidence in range predictions. Early-season pricing often underweights tail outcomes—unusually warm or cold days—which occur roughly 15–20% of the time in temperate maritime climates.

Traders should monitor the MetService New Zealand forecast and synoptic charts from mid-May onwards, as the Southern Hemisphere's atmospheric patterns shift during early winter. Subtropical air masses occasionally penetrate southward, producing anomalous warmth; conversely, Antarctic systems can suppress temperatures below the seasonal mean. The Wunderground data feed updates daily, and discrepancies between station readings and nearby weather services have occasionally triggered resolution disputes in comparable markets. No regulatory barriers affect trading this market under UK or EU frameworks; German GlüStV and US CFTC reach do not apply to weather derivatives under £1,500 notional value traded on compliant platforms.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.