Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 28 May 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band contains the highest recorded reading for that calendar day. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the same date, using Wunderground's historical weather database as the authoritative source. Late May in Shanghai typically falls within the pre-monsoon transition period, when daytime highs range between 28–32°C, though anomalies do occur.

Historical Shanghai temperature data from comparable late-May periods shows clustering around 30°C as a modal outcome, with excursions above 35°C rare but documented in roughly 5–8% of years during this window. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests either extreme confidence in a specific lower temperature band or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline. Traders should note that Shanghai's urban heat island effect and airport microclimate can produce readings 1–2°C above surrounding rural stations, a material factor when assessing boundary conditions between adjacent resolution bands.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable to EU-based participants, whilst US CFTC reach extends to American traders through Commodity Exchange Act definitions of prediction contracts. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies per calendar year for traders in jurisdictions permitting such access, meaning positions below that cumulative stake may settle without identity verification. Traders should verify their own jurisdiction's treatment of weather derivatives before committing capital.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.