Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Resolution depends on historical data from Wunderground, which archives daily extremes for this meteorological station. Shenzhen's subtropical climate typically produces May highs between 28 and 35 degrees Celsius, though occasional heat waves can push readings above 36 degrees. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 31 May, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature swing before final resolution.

Historical May temperatures at Bao'an show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on 31 May ranged from 29 to 34 degrees Celsius, with no extreme outliers. The current crowd probability of 0% YES suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across all outcome ranges. Comparable late-May weather patterns in Shenzhen reflect pre-monsoon conditions: humidity rises sharply, afternoon thunderstorms become frequent, and sustained heat waves remain uncommon before June's onset of the southwest monsoon.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 31 May, as these typically provide 7–10 day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for daily extremes. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific influence broader seasonal patterns but rarely shift single-day May temperatures by more than 2–3 degrees from the 30-year mean. From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility under UK and EU frameworks depends on trader jurisdiction; the German GlüStV exempts prediction markets under €1,500 per bet without KYC, whilst US CFTC oversight applies only to traders with US residency or IP address registration, making this weather contract broadly accessible to European participants below the threshold.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.