Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market settles based on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date and location, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the range definitions or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a live forecast.

Historical May temperatures at Le Bourget show typical highs between 20–24°C, though extremes have reached 28–29°C in unusually warm years. The 2003 European heat wave saw May temperatures spike significantly above normal, whilst cooler springs have produced highs near 16–18°C. Current probability distribution across available ranges will clarify which temperature brackets the market considers most likely; the 0% reading on any single range may indicate the crowd is awaiting clearer range definitions or splitting conviction across multiple outcomes.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-May onwards, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Spring weather patterns across northern Europe—influenced by Atlantic pressure systems and potential blocking highs—typically become more predictable 10–14 days before the settlement date. Any significant heat dome or cold snap affecting western Europe in late May would shift expectations materially. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's recorded data for Le Bourget; traders should verify the station's operational status and data quality before committing capital.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.