Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature of that day in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, sourced from the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure once the "Daily Extract" data is finalised and made available on their climate information system.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are historically stable within a narrow band. Daily maxima in early June typically range between 29°C and 33°C, with the 30-year mean around 31°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer range definitions or treating this as a placeholder market pending full odds publication. Comparable June days from the past decade show little volatility; the Observatory's records indicate that extreme outliers—temperatures below 27°C or above 35°C—occur in fewer than 5% of June 4th observations across the historical dataset. This consistency means the settlement outcome will almost certainly fall within the middle bands once they are specified.

The key dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule. Data for 4 June 2026 cannot be known until after that date passes, and the Observatory typically finalises daily climate extracts within 48 hours of observation. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website for the release of June 2026 data; any disruption to their reporting systems or delays in the "Daily Extract" publication would postpone resolution. Regulatory accessibility for this market depends on the platform's jurisdiction: German operators must comply with GlüStV licensing, whilst US-based traders face CFTC oversight if the platform is deemed to offer derivatives. Many platforms permit trading up to $1,500 without KYC verification, which may apply here depending on the host's regulatory classification.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.