Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Guangzhou sits in southern China's subtropical climate zone, where June typically marks the onset of the summer monsoon season. Historical June data from the airport station shows daily highs routinely between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific range boundaries or expect settlement data to be unavailable, though Wunderground's historical archive for this station has remained consistently accessible.

Comparable June temperature outcomes at Baiyun Airport over the past decade reveal clustering around 30–32°C as the modal range, with roughly one in four years seeing peaks at 33°C or higher. The current zero probability may reflect ambiguity around which temperature bracket the market operator has defined as the YES outcome, rather than meteorological implausibility. Traders should verify the exact threshold ranges before committing capital, as the difference between a 33°C and 34°C settlement can determine resolution.

Regulatory accessibility differs by jurisdiction: under German GlüStV, weather derivatives require state licensing; US CFTC oversight applies to prediction markets with US-resident traders; and UK-domiciled platforms typically allow trading up to £1,000 (approximately $1,500) without enhanced KYC for weather events. Guangzhou's monsoon onset timing and any anomalous heat advisories issued by China's meteorological authority in late May 2026 will be the primary catalysts affecting trader positioning.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.