Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data published by Wunderground, which aggregates observations across all daylight and night-time hours on that specific date. Beijing's early summer climate typically produces daytime highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently view the market as either mispriced or insufficiently liquid to attract positions.

Historical June temperatures at Beijing's airport station show considerable year-on-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, June highs ranged from 26°C during cooler years to 37°C during heat events. The 2022 heatwave pushed readings to 40°C in parts of northern China, though airport-station readings remained lower. This volatility means the current zero probability reflects either extreme confidence in a narrow outcome or genuine illiquidity rather than genuine certainty about the weather itself.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 will influence seasonal patterns; the current phase favours warmer-than-average conditions across East Asia. Additionally, the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June, which occurs mid-morning Beijing time, potentially excluding afternoon peak temperatures depending on Wunderground's data-collection methodology. Regulatory accessibility varies: UK traders face no specific KYC requirement for weather markets under £1,500 notional value, whilst US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments, and German GlüStV rules treat prediction markets as gambling products requiring operator licensing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.