World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will generate the count of missed or saved penalties taken in normal time, stoppage time and extra time, with shootout attempts excluded. A **4% YES** price implies the market is leaning heavily towards a low total, which is consistent with the way non-shootout penalties are usually a small part of tournament scoring and with the fact that only clear in-play chances move this contract. Historic World Cup penalty narratives are often shaped by a handful of high-profile misses, such as the decisive miss in the 1994 final, but that does not by itself imply a large aggregate for this market[1][8].

For accessibility and compliance, the practical overlay is mostly regulatory rather than sporting. In Germany, GlüStV rules can affect whether a prediction market is treated as gambling-style activity and how it is offered to retail users; in the US, CFTC jurisdiction can matter if a platform is deemed to be offering event contracts to US persons. A “no-KYC up to $1,500” access model generally means lighter identity checks before that threshold, but it does not remove local restrictions, withdrawal controls or platform-side eligibility screening, so it is best read as a limited onboarding feature rather than unrestricted access to every user.

The main catalysts are the tournament’s match schedule, referee decisions on penalty awards, and any injuries or tactical shifts that change penalty taker selection. Recent World Cup penalty coverage shows how much attention is already on established takers and historical conversion records, with Harry Kane and Lionel Messi highlighted as notable examples in June reporting[3]. For this market, the most relevant updates will be official FIFA match data as games are completed, because the settlement rule is based on completed matches if the competition is curtailed early.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.