Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is whether the Hong Kong Observatory’s **lowest reading on 8 August** lands in the published Celsius band that resolves this market, with the final figure taken from the Observatory’s daily extract once it is finalised. Hong Kong’s August climate is usually very warm and humid: the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normal for 8 August shows a mean minimum of **26.9°C**, which makes a sub-25°C outcome unusual but not impossible if rain, cloud, or a cooler maritime flow briefly suppresses the overnight low.[1]

That is the right frame for the current **0% implied probability**: it reflects a market view that a very low August reading is unlikely, not that it is impossible. Historical comparables point to a generally narrow band of summer minima in Hong Kong, with recent August summaries showing mean daily minimum temperatures around **27°C** and exceptionally hot months still staying well above the sort of readings that would materially shift this contract.[9][13] For regulatory context, German **GlüStV** restrictions can affect how prediction markets are treated under local gambling rules, while the US **CFTC** can assert reach where products are deemed commodity derivatives; accessibility therefore depends on user location and classification, not just the market’s headline. In practical terms, “**no-KYC up to $1,500**” means a user may be able to access this market without identity verification until their activity crosses that threshold, after which enhanced checks would usually be required.

The key catalysts are the Observatory’s morning and overnight hourly readings, because the final settlement depends on the day’s absolute minimum, not the daytime maximum. As of early 8 August, the Observatory had already posted an **air temperature of 29°C at 1 a.m.**, which is consistent with a warm overnight profile and leaves the settlement outcome dependent on later pre-dawn cooling or a rain-cooled dip.[16] Traders should watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly updates and the eventual daily extract on its climate page, since the market cannot resolve until that data is published.[15][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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No. Polymarket is not licensed by the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC). It is a decentralised prediction market operated under US regulation. UK traders can use it but do not benefit from UKGC dispute resolution or player protection requirements.

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Does Polymarket KYC apply to UK users?

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What is the legal difference between Polymarket and Betfair Exchange for UK traders?

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