Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a specific range, reflecting the market’s view that the outcome is either highly uncertain or that the range being bet on is climatically implausible for mid-June in Wellington.

Historical data shows June highs at Wellington typically fall between 12°C and 15°C, with average daily highs decreasing from 57°F to 54°F over the month [1]. A comparable case occurred on 11 June 2026, when Wellington recorded a maximum of exactly 14°C, with a 44.5% crowd-implied probability for that outcome [2]. This suggests that while 14°C is a plausible peak, the current 0% probability likely indicates the market is betting on a different range or that the specific range offered is outside the typical June envelope.

Traders should monitor MetService NZ’s daily forecasts and real-time observations, as Wellington recently recorded over 19°C—the highest June temperature on record for the city [5]. Key dependencies include wind patterns, cloud cover, and precipitation schedules, all of which influence peak temperatures. Recent BBC Weather data for 25 June shows strong winds, rain, and a high of 12°C, reinforcing the likelihood of cooler conditions [3]. No regulatory announcements are expected to alter the settlement, but traders must note that German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks may affect market access, while “no-KYC up to $1,500” allows broader participation for this specific event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.