Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the daily peak temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 24 June 2026, a metric that will determine the settlement of this prediction market. Historical data shows that June in Wellington typically sees average daily highs between 13°C and 14°C, with overcast conditions occurring roughly 42% of the time [1]. While the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome sits at 0%, this figure aligns with comparable markets where outcomes near the climatological average dominate; for instance, a similar market for 25 June assigned a 43% probability to 13°C as the frontrunner [2]. The recent record-breaking June temperature of over 19°C recorded on 1–2 June [5] serves as a critical outlier, suggesting that while extreme heat is possible, the 0% probability likely reflects the market’s expectation that the 24th will revert to typical mid-winter norms rather than repeat early-month anomalies.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from MetService NZ and Wunderground history feeds, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the peak temperature [3][5]. The primary catalyst is the daily high temperature release, which depends on the station’s ability to capture the absolute maximum across all 24 hours. Regulatory accessibility remains a key factor for participation: under German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach, platforms offering "no-KYC up to $1,500" allow traders to access this market without identity verification, provided they stay within the threshold. This specific market’s low liquidity and 0% probability may limit immediate trading interest, but the regulatory framework ensures broad accessibility for those willing to bet on a deviation from the expected 13–14°C range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.