Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The event is whether Wellington International Airport reaches a sufficiently high daytime maximum on 21 June, with settlement tied to the highest temperature recorded at the station on that calendar day. Early signals point to a cool winter baseline: BBC Weather shows Wellington International Airport at 15°C with a forecast for Sunday of 11–18°C, while June averages at the airport are typically in the mid-50s °F, or roughly 12–13°C.[1][2] That makes the current crowd-implied **0% YES** consistent with a market that is already pricing in a very low probability of an unusually warm winter high rather than a routine June outcome.[1][2]

Comparable cases for reading this market usually depend on whether a single warm pulse can push the airport above local winter norms, and MetService has recently flagged Wellington as having already exceeded its June maximum temperature on record with over 19°C recorded on one day this month.[4] In practical terms, that shows the upper tail is not impossible even in June, but it also underlines how unusual such readings are relative to the normal seasonal range. For accessibility, the regulatory layer matters: German GlüStV constraints can affect whether participation is available from Germany, US-facing access may sit within the CFTC’s broader enforcement reach depending on venue structure, and “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means lower-friction entry for small balances rather than unrestricted access, since identity checks can still apply once limits are exceeded or compliance flags arise.

Traders should watch the Wellington forecast evolution, any MetService updates, and the airport station observations through the settlement window, because the result turns on the day’s actual high rather than a daily average.[1][3] The main catalysts are a short-lived warm nor’west flow, cloud breaks, or any change to the shower and wind outlook that could suppress or lift the afternoon maximum.[1] Since the market settles on the Wunderground history page for Wellington Intl Airport Station, the practical dependency is simply what the station records by the end of the day, not broader city temperatures or nearby suburbs.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.