Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows June highs at this station typically range between 21°C and 29°C, with daily peaks rarely falling below 18°C or exceeding 33°C under normal conditions [1][3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific outcome suggests traders are either hedging against an extreme outlier or misinterpreting the resolution brackets, as comparable June days in recent years have consistently produced temperatures within the mid-range bands [7][8].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from Environment Canada and real-time updates from Wunderground, which serves as the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in temperature trends or storm systems approaching the region [2][4]. A recent forecast indicates daily highs for late June 2026 could reach up to 28°C, making lower temperature ranges less probable unless an unexpected cold front intervenes [3]. Additionally, market accessibility hinges on regulatory frameworks: German GlüStV rules may restrict participation for some users, while US CFTC reach remains limited for non-US platforms, and the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold allows broader access for retail traders without identity verification, provided they stay within that limit.

These regulatory nuances mean that while the market is technically open to a global audience, compliance obligations vary by jurisdiction, potentially affecting liquidity and settlement reliability. The absence of KYC requirements for smaller trades enhances accessibility but does not exempt the platform from broader anti-money laundering obligations under international standards. As the settlement window closes on 25 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, all resolution data will be pulled directly from Wunderground’s historical records for Toronto Pearson, ensuring transparency and verifiability [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.