Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Celsius. The settlement relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, capturing the single daily maximum across all recorded times at that monitoring station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive no meaningful likelihood of extreme heat on that specific date, though May in Tokyo typically sees temperatures between 20–28°C as the region transitions into early summer.

Historical May temperature records at Haneda show a maximum of 34.4°C (set in 2013), with temperatures exceeding 30°C occurring roughly once every three to four years during the month. The current zero probability likely reflects either insufficient market participation or a baseline expectation that May 2026 will track within normal seasonal bounds rather than produce record-breaking heat. Comparable spring-to-early-summer transitions in Tokyo have rarely generated the sustained high-pressure systems needed for outlier temperatures; most May extremes cluster around the final week when subtropical air masses occasionally penetrate northward.

Traders monitoring this market should track Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal forecasts released in April 2026, which typically signal La Niña or El Niño influences on regional weather patterns. Any advisory from JMA regarding above-normal temperatures in late May would shift expectations. Additionally, the exact settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 May, meaning the highest temperature must be finalised by that deadline; late-day heat spikes recorded after the cutoff would not factor into resolution. Weather Underground's historical database has proven reliable for Japanese airport stations, though traders should verify data availability 24–48 hours after the settlement date to confirm final figures.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.