Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s highest temperature for 31 July will be the figure that settles this market, based on the daily maximum logged on Wunderground’s history page for RJTT. The current 0% implied probability is best read as a pricing artefact rather than a weather forecast: at this point, the market is still waiting for the day’s observed high to appear on the reference page, and Tokyo’s late-July temperatures can move quickly with afternoon heating.

The closest comparables point to a steady summer baseline rather than an obvious outlier. Tokyo’s July climate averages are around 28–30°C, while recent July daily maxima in Tokyo have often sat in the low-to-mid 30s; the JMA’s 2025 station data for Haneda shows a 31 July high of 31.1°C, with other Tokyo locations a little warmer or cooler depending on exposure and urban heat island effects.[10][8][12] Broader national records also matter for framing, because Japan has just seen exceptional heat, including a new all-time national high of 41.8°C on 5 August 2025 and a 41.2°C reading in Tamba on 30 July 2025, showing that late-July extremes are possible even if Haneda itself usually runs lower than inland prefectures.[3][9][14]

The main catalysts today are the actual afternoon temperature path in Tokyo, any sea-breeze or thunderstorm development, and whether the Wunderground station feed updates cleanly before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Traders also need to keep regulatory and access frictions in view: German GlüStV treatment can make local participation materially harder if the market is viewed as gambling-linked, US CFTC reach can matter if a venue is considered to offer a derivatives-like contract to US persons, and “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means small balances and lower-volume trading can proceed with lighter identity checks, but it does not remove platform, jurisdictional, or withdrawal limits for this specific market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

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Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.

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You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Legal UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

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