Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground’s daily history, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of any outcome other than the implied ranges. Historical July highs in Tokyo typically cluster between 31°C and 35°C, with 33°C and 34°C emerging as the frontrunners in the live market, holding 40% and 28% probabilities respectively [1]. This distribution aligns with past decade averages, where extreme heat days above 35°C occur infrequently but are not impossible, suggesting the 0% crowd-implied probability for “YES” likely reflects a binary framing rather than a genuine expectation of no measurable temperature.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released daily at 09:00 JST, alongside real-time Wunderground updates for RJTT, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or sea breeze patterns can alter peak temperatures within hours. Recent heatwave alerts in eastern Japan, including a 34°C reading in Chiba on 14 July, signal elevated risk for similar conditions in Tokyo [1]. Regulatory accessibility hinges on jurisdiction: German GlüStV restrictions may block access for residents unless licensed, while US CFTC reach limits participation for US persons without KYC. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold permits anonymous entry for smaller positions, enhancing accessibility for non-US, non-German traders, though settlement remains tied to official Wunderground data regardless of regulatory status.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Legal UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.

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What if regulation changes?

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