Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. Resolution depends on historical data published by Weather Underground for that specific date and location. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or minimal trading activity; neither necessarily reflects underlying meteorological likelihood.

Taipei's May temperatures historically cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early-summer heat waves. Comparable May days at Songshan show variability driven by monsoon transitions and subtropical pressure systems. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 26 May, creating a hard deadline before afternoon temperature readings are finalised on Weather Underground. Traders should note that Songshan Airport, located in the city's east, experiences urban heat-island effects that can elevate readings relative to surrounding areas.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets on weather events face stricter classification than political or sports outcomes, potentially affecting EU-based trader participation. US CFTC guidance treats weather derivatives cautiously but does not prohibit retail access to prediction markets on meteorological events. Platforms offering no-KYC trading up to $1,500 USD typically allow this market's participation without identity verification, though settlement and withdrawal may trigger enhanced checks depending on aggregate account activity and operator licensing status.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.