Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily temperature extremes for this official meteorological station. The market resolves at 12:00 UTC on that date, capturing the peak temperature across all hours of the calendar day in Taipei's local timezone.

Taipei's June temperatures typically range between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows considerable variability: June 2023 recorded a high of 34.2°C, whilst June 2021 reached 36.8°C. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are either awaiting range specification or treating this as an exploratory market with limited initial participation. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms show that temperature ranges within ±2°C of seasonal norms attract modest trading volume, whilst extreme-weather scenarios (above 38°C or below 25°C for June) typically see negligible backing until meteorological alerts emerge.

Traders should monitor Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecasts, typically issued 7–10 days before settlement. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by NOAA, influence broader East Asian temperature patterns and may shift June expectations. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific, which peaks from July onwards but occasionally affects June weather systems, could introduce volatility. The German GlüStV and US CFTC do not directly regulate weather derivatives on decentralised platforms, though UK-based traders should note that prediction markets settling on objective meteorological data generally fall outside FCA derivatives oversight if structured as information markets rather than financial instruments. No-KYC access up to $1,500 USD per market typically applies to individual positions, not cumulative exposure across related weather contracts.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.