Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Market context

Singapore's daily high temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Changi Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit positions before the final afternoon heating period concludes. May sits within Singapore's inter-monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 31–34°C, though extremes occasionally breach 35°C during particularly intense heat events.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve, rather than doubt that a measurable high will occur. Historical May records at Changi show variability: the station has recorded highs from 29°C to 36°C across different years, with clustering around 32–33°C most common. Comparable May days in 2023 and 2024 saw highs of 32.8°C and 33.1°C respectively, establishing a baseline against which outlier scenarios—either cooler due to extended cloud cover or hotter during clear, dry spells—can be assessed.

Traders should monitor the Meteorological Service Singapore's seasonal forecasts and any announced monsoon transitions in late May, as these shift atmospheric conditions materially. Recent tropical weather patterns, including the Indian Ocean Dipole phase reported by the Bureau of Meteorology in April 2026, influence regional moisture and convection. Real-time tracking of Changi's hourly readings in the days preceding 26 May will sharpen probability estimates, particularly afternoon observations that typically capture daily maxima. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, weather derivative markets face varying regulatory treatment; UK-domiciled platforms generally operate under FCA guidance, whilst no-KYC access up to £1,500 notional exposure permits retail participation without full identity verification for this specific market's lower-stake positions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.