Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen will experience early-summer conditions on 4 June 2026, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band captures the daily high recorded at Bao'an International Airport. June in Shenzhen typically sees highs between 28–34 °C, though extreme heat events pushing above 35 °C occur roughly once per decade during early summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's upper threshold to fall below historical norms for this date, or that settlement data availability carries perceived execution risk.

Historical temperature records from Bao'an station show June highs cluster around 30–32 °C in typical years, with 2015 and 2019 recording peaks near 34 °C. The 2023 heat wave pushed several southern Chinese cities above 40 °C, though Shenzhen's coastal position and maritime influence typically moderate extremes compared to inland Guangdong. Current probability distribution implies traders are pricing either a cooler-than-average early June or uncertainty about Wunderground's historical data completeness for this specific station.

Catalysts include the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, typically released in late May, and any tropical weather systems tracking toward the Pearl River Delta in early June. The market's reliance on Wunderground's Bao'an archive means traders should verify data continuity; airport station records occasionally show gaps or corrections post-settlement. Regulatory accessibility under German GlüStV and US CFTC reach remains standard for weather derivatives under $1,500 notional exposure, with no-KYC entry available up to that threshold on most UK-regulated platforms, though individual brokers' terms vary.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.