Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. Early June in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C as the region transitions into summer monsoon season, though anomalies do occur. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent or treating this as a baseline calibration market rather than one with genuine uncertainty about the outcome.

Historical Shanghai weather data shows June temperatures cluster predictably around seasonal norms, with extreme heat events (35°C+) occurring in roughly 5–10% of years during this month. The current probability distribution likely reflects either insufficient trader participation or consensus that mid-range outcomes (28–30°C) dominate. Comparable weather markets on similar dates in East Asian cities have typically seen crowd estimates align within 1–2°C of actual outcomes once sufficient liquidity arrives, suggesting the flat 0% reading here reflects market thinness rather than forecasting confidence.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable to EU participants, whilst US CFTC reach extends to American traders through Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight of prediction market operators. The no-KYC threshold up to $1,500 means traders can access this specific market without identity verification provided their cumulative position remains below that limit, lowering friction for casual weather speculation. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 9 June 2026, with Wunderground's historical archive serving as the single authoritative resolution source.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.