Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 23 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Historical data shows June is Shanghai’s wettest month, with an average of 11.7 rainy days and peak precipitation probability around 45% on 26 June[1]. Comparable cases from June 2025 indicate temperatures rarely exceed 30°C under heavy cloud cover and frequent showers[7], which aligns with the current crowd-implied 0% probability for higher ranges, as extreme heat is statistically unlikely during this monsoon-influenced period.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the National Weather Service for Shanghai Pudong, particularly any announcements of sudden heatwaves or shifts in cloud patterns[2]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s final daily record, which may lag if data is incomplete, as seen in recent reports showing “No Data Recorded” for daily observations[3]. A recent forecast from AccuWeather predicts rain and cloudy conditions on 23 June with temperatures near 25°C, reinforcing the low likelihood of extreme heat[4].

Regulatory accessibility hinges on jurisdiction: German GlüStV may restrict unlicensed prediction markets, while US CFTC reach extends to platforms offering contracts on foreign weather events. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows traders in compliant regions to access this market without identity verification, provided they fall under local exemptions. This specific market’s low probability and weather-dependent resolution make it a niche instrument, accessible primarily to those operating within legal frameworks that permit such non-financial derivatives.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.