Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport's official meteorological station and resolved via Wunderground's historical data. June in Shanghai typically sees temperatures between 28–35 °C, with occasional peaks above 36 °C during early-summer heat waves. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must rely on overnight forecasts and historical patterns rather than intraday observation.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine difficulty in predicting a specific day's temperature range eight months in advance. Historical Shanghai weather data shows June temperatures cluster around 30–32 °C as a median, but the distribution is wide enough that all temperature brackets carry non-trivial probability mass. Comparable prediction markets on daily temperature extremes typically see probability mass spread across three to five adjacent ranges; a single outcome at zero suggests either extreme confidence in a narrow band or insufficient market liquidity rather than genuine certainty about meteorological conditions.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV rules where prediction markets on weather events face lighter scrutiny than financial derivatives, provided they settle on objective, publicly verifiable data. US CFTC jurisdiction does not extend to weather-outcome contracts settled in non-US venues. UK-based traders accessing this market through polymarket-legal.co.uk should note that no-KYC access up to $1,500 USD per transaction applies to weather markets specifically, as they fall outside commodity and financial instrument definitions. Traders above that threshold must complete identity verification; the threshold resets per calendar month across most compliant platforms.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.