Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 1?

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Market context

On 1 June 2026, Shanghai's highest daily temperature will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground's historical data. June marks the transition into Shanghai's early summer season, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C, though occasional heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature swing before resolution.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that high temperatures are impossible. Shanghai's June climate is volatile: the city experiences monsoon influences, occasional cold fronts, and variable humidity that create wide daily ranges. Historical precedent shows June 1st highs have ranged from 24°C to 36°C over recent decades, making any single temperature band a genuine forecasting challenge. Comparable weather markets on this platform typically show compressed probabilities only when settlement is imminent or when meteorological consensus is exceptionally strong; the current flat reading suggests traders are either absent or genuinely split on which temperature band will resolve.

The China Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts updated daily, with the most reliable guidance arriving in late May. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, whilst rare in early June, can occasionally influence Shanghai's weather patterns and should be monitored through June forecasts. Wunderground's historical database for ZSPD station is publicly accessible and has proven reliable for settlement purposes across comparable markets, though traders should verify data availability before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.