Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground, which archives daily temperature extremes for this Seoul-area monitoring point. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive no meaningful likelihood of the market resolving to whichever range is being priced, though this reflects either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or sparse liquidity rather than certainty about meteorological conditions.

Seoul's late May temperatures typically range between 20–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during early heat waves. Historical records from Incheon Airport show that temperatures exceeding 32°C on 31 May are rare but not unprecedented; the station has recorded highs of 31–33°C on this date in roughly one in five years over the past two decades. The current zero probability assigned to YES outcomes suggests the market may be pricing a specific temperature band as the consensus expectation, or that traders have not yet engaged substantively with this particular resolution window.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in late April and early May 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which typically issues extended outlooks three to four weeks ahead. Pacific typhoon activity and the strength of the North Pacific high-pressure system in late spring will influence whether Seoul experiences typical late-May conditions or an early monsoon surge. Wunderground's historical data feed for Incheon remains the sole authoritative source; discrepancies between real-time forecasts and archived readings have occasionally created settlement disputes on similar weather markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.