Highest temperature in Seoul on May 29?

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Market context

On 29 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on historical weather data published by Weather Underground for that specific date and location, which serves as South Korea's primary aviation meteorology reference point.

Seoul's late May temperatures typically range between 20–28°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 30°C during early heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no outcome within the lowest temperature bracket offered, or that the market structure itself presents settlement ambiguity. Historical May records at Incheon show variability driven by monsoon onset timing and subtropical high-pressure systems; comparable years reveal that late-spring heat waves, whilst possible, remain less frequent than summer peaks. Understanding prior May distributions at this station is essential for calibrating expectations against the current implied odds.

The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts in late April, which typically clarify whether May will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Traders should monitor their May outlook release and any updates to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation index, as these influence East Asian weather patterns two to three months ahead. Additionally, the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 29 May, meaning real-time temperature data from Incheon must be accessed before that deadline; any discrepancy between local Korean Standard Time observations and UTC conversion could affect final resolution timing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.