Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 28 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, a widely-used meteorological archive, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on that date. Seoul's late May climate typically sits in the warm season, with daily highs averaging 24–26°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any meteorological certainty. Historical May temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation; the station recorded 28.9°C on 28 May 2023 and 26.1°C on the same date in 2022. Comparable weather prediction markets on similar dates have attracted modest liquidity, with traders often anchoring to seasonal norms and El Niño or La Niña conditions prevailing in the preceding months. The absence of current trading activity suggests participants are awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts or simply have not yet engaged with this specific resolution window.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under frameworks that vary by jurisdiction. UK-based traders face no specific KYC requirement for positions under £1,500, though the German GlüStV (gambling licensing statute) may apply to EU residents depending on the platform's licensing. US CFTC oversight extends to prediction markets involving US persons, though weather derivatives themselves occupy a less-regulated space than financial contracts. Traders should verify their own jurisdictional status before committing capital.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.