Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in degrees Celsius. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical data archive for that specific date, with the resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the available ranges.

Seoul's May climate is well-documented: average highs range from 24–26°C, with historical extremes occasionally reaching 30°C or above during early heat waves. The 2018 May heatwave saw temperatures exceed 32°C across the region, whilst cooler years have produced highs near 20°C. These precedents establish a wide plausible range; the 0% reading likely reflects that no single temperature bracket has attracted sufficient backing to move away from baseline odds, rather than genuine certainty about the outcome. Comparable spring-season weather markets on this platform have typically seen probability distributions flatten across 3–4 contiguous temperature bands once trading volume increases.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from early May 2026, as the North Pacific high-pressure system's positioning will determine whether subtropical warmth reaches the peninsula. El Niño or La Niña conditions in late 2025 and early 2026 may influence seasonal temperature anomalies. Incheon's coastal location moderates extremes compared to inland Seoul; airport station readings typically run 1–2°C cooler than central city measurements. Real-time forecast updates from major weather services will become actionable only in the fortnight preceding settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.