Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground, which archives hourly readings from this major Seoul metropolitan weather station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assign negligible likelihood to whichever temperature bracket this market is testing—typically an extreme upper or lower bound relative to seasonal norms.

Seoul's June climate sits firmly in early summer, with historical daily highs averaging 26–28°C and rarely exceeding 32°C before the monsoon season intensifies. The current 0% reading likely reflects a range far outside this envelope—either an unusually cold ceiling (below 15°C) or an extreme heat scenario (above 35°C) that contradicts decades of meteorological records for this period. Comparable June markets in prior years have shown similar probability clustering when resolution brackets are positioned at statistical outliers; traders typically ignore tail-risk ranges unless a documented weather anomaly (tropical storm, Arctic incursion) is imminent.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone warnings issued in late May 2026, as these would be the primary catalysts shifting probability away from baseline. Incheon Airport's station data feeds directly into Wunderground without delay, eliminating data-source ambiguity at settlement. The market's accessibility under UK and EU frameworks depends on whether the operator holds appropriate gaming or betting licences; German GlüStV rules treat weather derivatives as wagering products requiring state approval, whilst US CFTC oversight applies only if the platform operates as a registered derivatives exchange, a threshold most prediction markets avoid through no-KYC structures capped at $1,500 per user.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.