Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 27 June 2026 at the Incheon International Airport Station, which serves as the settlement metric for the Seoul market. Historical data for late June in South Korea shows daytime temperatures typically ranging between 19°C and 28°C, with humidity rising as the monsoon season approaches from late June to mid-July[1][4]. Comparable cases from previous years indicate that while late June can be noticeably hotter and more humid than early June, extreme heat spikes above 30°C are uncommon before the peak of July, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for higher temperature ranges consistent with established seasonal patterns[1][9].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and daily updates for the Incheon region, as sudden rain showers or humidity spikes could influence the final reading[3][8]. Recent travel guidance emphasises checking weather apps frequently due to the unpredictability of afternoon or evening showers in late June, which remain a key dependency for temperature outcomes[3]. Regulatory accessibility for this market is shaped by German GlüStV implications regarding online gambling and US CFTC reach over derivatives; however, the platform’s “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision allows traders to access this specific weather market without identity verification, provided their position size remains within this threshold, thereby enhancing liquidity for retail participants under current compliance frameworks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.