Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 June 2026, a date that historically sits at the transition from early summer warmth to the onset of Korea’s monsoon season. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any extreme heat range suggests the market expects temperatures to remain within the typical June band of 19–28°C, consistent with historical averages where the warmest day in June rarely exceeds 30°C unless a rare heatwave occurs [1][7].

Historical data from recent years frames this probability: in June 2026, Seoul’s highest recorded temperature reached 34.0°C on 19 June, yet the average warmest day remains near 28°C, indicating that extreme spikes are infrequent and usually short-lived [9]. Comparable cases from late June show that while humidity rises and rain becomes more common, sustained temperatures above 32°C are exceptional rather than routine, supporting the market’s low expectation for extreme heat [1][2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and Wunderground’s daily updates for Incheon, as any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the day’s peak temperature [4]. Recent climate monitors note that late June often brings higher humidity and increased rain chances, which typically suppress maximum temperatures rather than elevate them [5][6]. No major regulatory announcements are expected, but the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 25 June 2026 means real-time data from Wunderground will be the definitive resolution source [1].

From a regulatory perspective, German Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) implications and US CFTC reach define the legal boundaries for such prediction markets, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold enhances accessibility for retail participants without triggering stringent identity verification [1]. This structure allows traders to engage with weather-based markets under lighter compliance requirements, provided they remain within the specified transaction limits and jurisdictional frameworks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.