Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the recorded peak temperature at Incheon International Airport on 24 June 2026, a date historically marked by early summer warmth and the onset of monsoon humidity in South Korea. June typically sees Seoul temperatures between 19°C and 28°C, with late June often hotter and more humid than early June, though rarely reaching extreme midsummer highs[1][3].

Historical patterns suggest that a 0% crowd-implied probability for a high-temperature outcome is plausible given June’s moderate climate profile; comparable years show averages near 27°C with frequent rain showers limiting sustained heat spikes[2][8]. The monsoon season, beginning late June, introduces cooling rainfall that often suppresses peak temperatures, making extreme heat events statistically less likely in this window[4].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for heatwave alerts and precipitation probabilities, as sudden rain can drastically lower daily highs[6][9]. Recent travel guidance highlights the need for umbrellas and waterproof gear due to expected heavy rain and high humidity in June 2026, reinforcing the likelihood of temperature moderation[10]. Regulatory accessibility remains relevant: German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks may apply to prediction markets, but platforms offering “no-KYC up to $1,500” allow broader participation for this specific weather outcome without identity verification hurdles.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.