Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the hottest reading at Incheon International Airport on 21 June, which will settle against Wunderground’s daily history page for RKSI rather than a city centre station. June in Seoul and surrounding north-western Korea is usually early-summer rather than peak heat, with typical Seoul daytime temperatures around 19 to 28°C and a rising humidity/rain profile later in the month.[1][3]

That makes the current crowd-implied **0% YES** look like a pricing artefact rather than a statement that a warm afternoon is impossible. Comparable June climatology points to a broad band of outcomes: AccuWeather’s June range for Seoul reaches the high 20s °C and can push into the low 30s on hotter days, while general climate guides describe June as warm, increasingly humid, and more prone to showers as the month progresses.[5][1][3] For a weather market, the key point is that a single clear, sunny day can still print a materially higher airport maximum than the monthly average suggests, especially if winds are light and cloud cover breaks up during the afternoon.[1][3]

From a market-access angle, this sits in the same regulatory frame as other weather contracts: if a venue is treated as financial and offered to US persons, CFTC reach can matter; if it is treated as a gambling product under German law, the GlüStV framework is the relevant constraint for German users. A “no-KYC up to $1,500” limit generally means a trader may be able to reach that cumulative deposit or withdrawal band with lighter identity checks, but it does not remove jurisdictional restrictions or source-of-funds checks once thresholds are crossed. For this market, accessibility will therefore depend less on the weather itself than on where the user is located, whether the platform is permitted there, and whether the account stays within the stated verification band.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.