Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The contract hinges on the **highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station** on 20 June 2026, not a subjective “feels like” reading or a citywide average, so intraday spikes matter more than the day’s mean. Seoul and the wider north-western corridor are typically in a warming phase in June, with average highs rising through the month and rarely breaking well above the high-80s Fahrenheit, but this market is settled on the airport station’s recorded maximum, which can differ from central Seoul by a meaningful margin.[1][4]

The **13% YES** price implies the crowd sees a hot reading as possible but still distinctly non-base case. That fits the recent pattern in Korea, where June heat has produced extreme daily highs: Seoul reached 35.6°C on 19 June in a recent KMA-reported heat spell, and South Korea has also posted record national extremes in the past.[6][2] For comparison, a June reading in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius is common, while an unusually early heat surge is what tends to push markets into higher-probability territory.[1][4][6]

For accessibility, the market’s practical constraints matter as much as the weather. Under a German **GlüStV** lens, public-facing betting-style products can attract licensing and advertising restrictions, while US **CFTC** reach can be relevant if a platform is deemed to offer event contracts to US persons; neither point changes the weather outcome, but both affect where and how participation is offered. A stated **“no-KYC up to $1,500”** means smaller accounts may be able to trade without identity verification until that limit is reached, but it does not imply unrestricted access if a user is in a restricted jurisdiction or if platform compliance checks are triggered.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.