Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges in Celsius. Seoul's mid-June climate typically sits between 24–28 °C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs hourly observations at the airport's official meteorological station. This particular date falls during South Korea's early rainy season (jangma), when warm, humid air masses from the Pacific interact with frontal systems, creating variability in daily maxima.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show a median high near 26 °C, with extremes ranging from 20 °C in cooler years to 34 °C during heat events. The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve, rather than doubt that a reading will occur. Comparable markets on Seoul summer temperatures have typically seen resolution in the 25–29 °C bands, though outlier heat waves have occasionally driven settlement into higher ranges. The current crowd assessment suggests traders perceive no strong signal favouring any single outcome at this stage.

Traders should monitor South Korea's meteorological agency forecasts (Korea Meteorological Administration) as June approaches, particularly any advisories regarding early-season heat waves or monsoon intensity. El Niño or La Niña patterns in the preceding months may influence atmospheric conditions. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 June 2026, allowing only the calendar day's observations to count. Wunderground's historical data for Incheon (RKSI) is publicly accessible and auditable, reducing settlement disputes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.