Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. This settlement relies on historical weather data published by Weather Underground, a widely used meteorological archive accessible to traders for verification. The market's current 0% probability assigned to the YES outcome suggests traders expect the temperature to remain below the lowest threshold bracket offered, though Seoul's early summer climate typically produces daily highs between 25–28°C in mid-June.

Historical June temperature patterns at Incheon provide the baseline for calibrating expectations. Over the past two decades, mid-June highs have rarely exceeded 30°C, with most years clustering between 24–27°C. Anomalously warm days—driven by early heat waves or subtropical air masses—occur but remain statistically infrequent. The 0% crowd probability may reflect confidence in typical seasonal behaviour, though traders should note that a single unusual weather system could shift outcomes materially. South Korea's meteorological agency (KMA) publishes extended forecasts approximately ten days ahead, providing traders with updated atmospheric pattern data as the settlement date approaches.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under frameworks that vary by jurisdiction. UK-based traders face no specific KYC requirement for positions under £1,500, aligning with Gambling Commission guidance on low-value prediction markets. US traders should note that the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets remains contested; Weather Underground's data source is non-regulated, reducing compliance friction. German traders should verify compliance with GlüStV regulations, which classify certain prediction markets as gaming products subject to licensing requirements. Traders should confirm their local regulatory status before participation.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.