Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome. Seoul's June climate typically ranges between 20–28°C, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 30s. The 1% crowd probability reflects confidence that the daily high will remain below the threshold implied by the market's range structure, though the specific upper boundary has not been disclosed in the prompt.

Historical June records for Seoul show variability shaped by the East Asian monsoon transition. In recent decades, mid-June highs have occasionally exceeded 30°C during early heat waves, but sustained extreme temperatures (above 35°C) remain uncommon before late June. Comparable markets on Korean summer temperatures have typically resolved within expected seasonal norms, suggesting the current 1% probability may reflect either an unusually high threshold or trader consensus that typical early-summer conditions will prevail. Weather volatility in this period is material; a single high-pressure system can shift daily maxima by 5–8°C.

Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 13 June, particularly any alerts regarding early heat waves or subtropical air masses. The settlement relies on Wunderground's historical data from Incheon station, which occasionally experiences minor reporting delays. Currency and regulatory accessibility varies by jurisdiction: German operators face GlüStV compliance requirements, whilst US traders encounter CFTC reach limitations on certain derivative structures. Markets under $1,500 notional typically avoid KYC friction in many jurisdictions, though this market's actual accessibility depends on the platform's specific regulatory posture and user location.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.