Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-June typically sits in the warm-to-hot range as the East Asian monsoon season approaches. Historical data from Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station for this market, shows June daily highs averaging 26–28 °C, with occasional peaks above 30 °C during heat waves. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical records for the single highest temperature recorded at that station on 12 June 2026, converted to Celsius via the platform's settings toggle.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that heat will be absent. June in South Korea straddles late spring and early summer conditions; whilst heat waves do occur, they are not guaranteed on any specific date. Comparable years show variability: some Junes have seen highs in the low 20s during cooler, wetter periods, whilst others have breached 32 °C. The absence of near-term forecasts (the market settles in mid-2026) means traders are pricing based on climatological norms rather than meteorological prediction. The 0% reading suggests the market may be underweighting the statistical likelihood of temperatures falling within higher ranges typical for that calendar date.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly any early-season heat wave alerts issued in May or early June 2026. Pacific typhoon activity and the timing of monsoon onset both influence June temperatures in the region. Real-time access to Wunderground's historical station data will be essential for settlement verification, as the resolution depends entirely on that source's recorded high for the specific date and location.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.