Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 11 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band contains the highest daily reading in Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for any temperature spike occurring in the morning hours before the window shuts. Wunderground's historical archive will serve as the authoritative source, accessible via the gear-icon toggle to ensure Celsius readings.

June in Seoul typically sits within the early monsoon season, with average highs around 27–28°C but considerable year-to-year variance. Historical data from 2015–2025 shows that extreme heat events pushing above 32°C occur roughly one year in three during this period, whilst cooler patterns occasionally hold readings below 24°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no material heat spike on this specific date, though this reflects pre-forecast positioning rather than meteorological certainty. Comparable early-June events in Seoul have produced both unseasonably warm and temperate outcomes depending on the position of the Pacific high-pressure system.

Regulatory accessibility differs across jurisdictions: German operators fall under GlüStV licensing requirements; US CFTC oversight applies to US-domiciled traders; and non-KYC access up to $1,500 USD equivalent permits entry for smaller positions without identity verification in certain jurisdictions. Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 11 June, as these typically drive material repricing in weather markets. Any tropical system tracking towards the peninsula in early June would be a key catalyst, as would anomalous high-pressure positioning over East Asia.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.