Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which archives daily highs at this South Korean location. The current crowd probability of 0% for any single range suggests either extreme uncertainty about which bracket will resolve, or that traders have not yet priced in seasonal expectations for early summer in the Seoul metropolitan area.

Seoul's June climate is characterised by early monsoon activity and rising humidity ahead of the main rainy season. Historical data from Incheon shows June highs typically range between 24–28°C, though outlier years have produced readings above 30°C during heat waves. The 0% probability across all ranges reflects the market's nascent state rather than a genuine forecast consensus; comparable weather markets at this stage often see probability mass shift sharply once traders engage with seasonal norms and any emerging forecasts for that specific week.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under frameworks that vary by jurisdiction. Under Germany's GlüStV (gambling licensing statute), prediction markets on weather events may require licensing depending on operator classification. US CFTC oversight applies if the operator is US-domiciled or serves US persons; weather derivatives typically fall outside CFTC jurisdiction when structured as prediction markets rather than financial contracts. Many platforms offer no-KYC access up to approximately $1,500 in cumulative position value, allowing retail traders to participate in weather markets without identity verification below that threshold, though this accessibility threshold and its application to this specific market depend on the host platform's regulatory registration and user jurisdiction.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.