Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat recorded at Incheon International Airport on 10 July 2026, which will determine if the temperature hits the specific 28°C threshold for a "YES" outcome. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, reflecting a market consensus that such a low figure is virtually impossible given Seoul’s typical early-July climate, where highs rarely dip below 24°C and frequently exceed 30°C.

Historical precedents frame this near-zero probability starkly: Seoul reached 37.8°C on 8 July 2026, the highest early-July reading in 117 years of records, while Hongcheon set an all-time national record of 41.0°C just days prior[1][2]. Average July highs in Seoul range from 27°C to 29°C, rarely falling below 23°C, making a 28°C cap an unlikely ceiling rather than a floor[4]. Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Incheon station and any sudden shifts in monsoon-driven cloud cover, though recent data shows overcast conditions with only 77°F (25°C) at 2 AM on 10 July[5].

Regulatory accessibility hinges on jurisdiction: German GlüStV implications may restrict unlicensed betting for residents, while US CFTC reach extends to markets deemed securities, potentially limiting participation for Americans. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" clause allows anonymous access for smaller stakes, but this specific market’s 0% probability suggests minimal liquidity and high risk of total loss for any entrant, regardless of regulatory status. Recent Anadolu Ajansı reports confirm Seoul’s 37.7°C peak on 8 July, reinforcing the improbability of a 28°C outcome[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

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You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Legal UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.

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Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Legal UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.